As the Occupy movements are now facing bad and cold weather and the excitement from the first couple of weeks has waned, the big question is, how much of an impact will they have and how sustained will it be
The Occupy – “Indignados” movements will only succeed if ordinary people who are not activists do get involved. The usual suspects in those demonstrations and protest movements are the pacifists, the trade unions folks, etc. They certainly know something about organizing and mobilizing but I don’t think they have a lot of credibility in the general public – especially with those who do not share their political opinions. The young people whose mobilization on campuses across the US has been impressive also lack credibility because they are mostly viewed as inexperienced and idealistic. Activists who form the core of the Occupy movement have been dissenting for a long time, proclaiming that our system was flawed (and they were probably right about that). But ironically, they do not represent change since they have been at it for so long.
They are however capturing the “zeitgeist” as their anti-globalization / anti-capitalism rhetoric and agenda resonate with people angry about the current economic situation and consequently about our system that supposedly has created that mess. Americans – usually among the most disciplined ones and those who believe in the benefits of capitalism - are upset about high unemployment that, contrary to prior recession or slow growth periods, is barely going down and about rocky stock markets that experience large swings from one day to the next.
The Occupy – “Indignados” movements will have a long-term and significant impact if they can lead or actively participate in the reflection about the changes needed in our system. Despite the growing consensus that our system needs to be fixed there hasn’t been a concerted effort so far to carry out that thinking process.
The Occupy folks will probably have a more radical view than I on the question but I don’t believe that fighting capitalism all the way and making it evil, responsible for all the injustice and the suffering in this world, is the solution. The emergence of the middle class after World War II in Western societies, which meant that millions got out of poverty over these couple of decades, took place in a mostly capitalist society – but one that was more just and balanced.
In the 80’s a shift occurred as a result of the “Reaganomics”, the conservative economic policy that Reagan and Thatcher implemented for a number of years, and the gap between the rich and the poor started widening again and the middle class increasingly felt the squeeze. Real salaries (adjusted for inflation) have been flat on average in most Western countries since that time while wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands.
The average difference in salary between lowest paid workers and CEOs were 1 to 8 in 1980. Things are slightly different today – for instance, the CEO of CBS, the US media company, made an astounding 60 million last year. If folks in the CBS mailroom made say $20k, the 1 to 8 ratio skyrockets to 1 to 3000!!!
Thus, in richer nations inequalities have been on the rise while some populations have been stuck in poverty for years. In the meantime, the situation in the Global South is not tremendously better. Even in China, India, and Brazil which are rightly viewed as success stories, significant inequalities persist. And a lot of other nations are still struggling with poverty even though they have received development cooperation aid and benefited from foreign direct investment for a long time, often have a talented work force, and, in some cases, enjoy natural resources that constitute a major source of income.
I will write more on ideas to reform our system in my next post, with a focus on industrialized countries as emerging / developing countries have to contend with particular issues that make their situation even more complex.